| 讲座简介： | Abstract:
We analyze the impact of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) and permanent immigrants on interprovincial mobility in Canada. Particular attention is given to the Canadian program of TFWs that has intensified enormously over the last 30 years. Results of the empirical analysis are analyzed through the lens of a small theoretical model that incorporates a job-matching framework (Pissaridès, 1985, 2000) in a migration model à la Harris and Todaro (1970). We find that the inflow of TFWs into a given province tends to substantially decrease net interprovincial mobility. This is not the case, however, for the inflow of permanent immigrants selected through the Canadian point system. On average, each inflow of 100 TFWs is found to decrease net interprovincial migrants within the year by about 50, a number substantially higher than is present in existing literature. This number increases to 180 in the long run. The negative impact of TFWs is ascribed to the fact that TFWs are hired directly by employers, take vacant jobs, and display employment and participation rates of close to 100 per cent. Our paper suggests that, in general, the impact of immigration on labor market conditions depends critically on the way immigrants are selected.
摘要：本文分析临时外国工人(TFW)以及永久移民对于加拿大本地人跨省流动的影响。我们特别关注的是在过去30年间增长迅速的TFW项目下的工人。我们的实证研究基于融合了工作匹配理论(Pissaridès, 1985, 2000)和移民理论(Harris and Todaro, 1970)的一个小型理论模型。我们的研究发现随着TFW流入某个省份，该省的跨省人员流动会明显下降。但是，根据加拿大积分制度流入的永久居民对于跨省流动却没有这样的影响。平均而言，每100位TFW会在一年内减少50人的跨省人员净流动数。这个数字比现有文献中的数据要高很多。而在长期，这个数字会更达到180. TFW的负面作用在于他们是被用人单位直接雇佣，因此占据了空闲的职位使得本地人的就业被挤压。当然，他们的劳动参与率基本接近100%。 我们的研究表明，总体上看，移民对于劳动力市场的影响受因移民的挑选程序而异。 |
