| 讲座简介： | Since 1987, the National Bureau of Statistics of China has been publishing age- and sex- specific population and death counts for the entire Chinese population every year. With these data, national life tables can be constructed straightforwardly. However, detailed population and death counts at provincial level are often unavailable, except for a few advanced provincial units such as Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang. For reasons such as socio-economic differences, mortality patterns among different provinces in China could be highly different; therefore, provincial life tables, instead of aggregated national life tables, are more relevant when we study or manage longevity risk in particular regions of China. In this paper, we develop a disaggregation model that allows us to decompose life table data from national to provincial level. The proposed model is important to the development of longevity securitization in China, as it helps practitioners to assess the usefulness of a Chinese national mortality index for hedging the longevity risk associated with specific pension or annuity portfolios in China. We conclude this paper by using the estimated provincial life tables to calculate actuarially fair compensations for personal injury cases that occurred in different parts of China. Key words: Mortality differentials; Longevity risk in China; Assessment of basis risk |
