| 讲座简介： | This paper investigates asymptotic properties of quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimates for flow data on the dual gravity model in international trade with spatial interactions (dependence). The dual gravity model has a well-established economic foundation and it has the form of a spatial autoregressive model (SAR). The dual gravity model is originated by Behrens et al. (2012), but the spatial weights matrix motivated by their economic theory has a feature which violates existing regularity conditions for asymptotic econometrics analysis. By overcoming the limitation of existing asymptotic theory, we show that QML estimates are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Simulation results show the satisfactory finite sample performance of the estimates. We illustrate the usefulness of the model by investigating the McCallum "border puzzle" in the gravity literature. |
