科学研究

Prof. Tian, Xiaohui graduated from The Ohio State University with a Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics. She is currently an associate professor at the School of Agriculture and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Renmin University of China “Outstanding Scholar” Support Program Young Scholar. She has published high-level publications in well-known domestic and international journals such as the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Land Economics, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Forest Policy and Economics, China Rural Economy, and China Industrial Economy. In addition, she has published many articles at the national level, presided over two projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China and several provincial and ministerial-level entrusted projects, and won the title of the annual scholar of the China Young Agricultural Economist Forum. She also serves as the Director of the China Agricultural Economics Association, the Standing Member and Secretary-general of the Youth (Work) Committee of the China Agricultural Economics Association, and the Deputy Secretary-general of the Beijing Agricultural Economics Association.

Forest carbon sequestration is an effective way to cope with climate change and achieve the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality". At present, China has not implemented a national forest carbon sequestration policy; instead, China focuses on promoting forest carbon sequestration based on the existing forest policies. This study studies two key forest projects in China, namely, the banning of commercial logging of natural forests and the returning farmland to forests. Using a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the forestry sector: Global Timber Model (GTM), and incorporating the Eighth National Forest Inventory Census Data, we project the dynamic response of wood production, market price, management intensity and forest carbon sink under different policy scenarios. The results show that the logging banning could not induce additional carbon sinks in the short-term; the policy of returning farmland to forests has a strong positive effect on carbon sinks in the short and long term; Without any policy interventions, China's forest stock can still achieve an increase of 3.723 billion cubic meters between 2005 and 2030, accounting for 82.73% of the forestry target (4.5 billion cubic meters) promised by the National Independent Contribution (NDC).