科学研究

Chenlei Leng is Professor of Statistics in the University of Warwick and Turing Fellow in the Alan Turing Institute. His main research interest is to develop statistical methods for data analysis especially when data are high-dimensional, correlated and/or networked. He is an Elected Member of the International Statistical Institute and a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.

Analysis of networks that evolve dynamically requires the joint modelling of individual snapshots and time dynamics. This paper proposes a new flexible two-way heterogeneity model towards this goal. The new model equips each node of the network with two heterogeneity parameters, one to characterize the propensity to form ties with other nodes statically and the other to differentiate the tendency to retain existing ties over time. With n observed networks each having p nodes, we develop a new asymptotic theory for the maximum likelihood estimation of 2p parameters when np goes to infinity. We overcome the global non-convexity of the negative log-likelihood function by the virtue of its local convexity, and propose a novel method of moment estimator as the initial value for a simple algorithm that leads to the consistent local maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). To establish the upper bounds for the estimation error of the MLE, we derive a new uniform deviation bound, which is of independent interest. The theory of the model and its usefulness are further supported by extensive simulation and a data analysis examining social interactions of ants.