A Dynamic Network Perspective of Cryptocurrencies

Professor, Humboldt University

Cryptocurrencies are becoming an attractive asset class and are the focus of recent quantitative research. The joint dynamics of the cryptocurrency market yields information on network risk. Utilizing the adaptive LASSO approach, we build a dynamic network of cryptocurrencies and model the latent communities with a dynamic stochastic blockmodel. We develop a dynamic covariate-assisted spectral clustering method to uniformly estimate the latent group membership of cryptocurrencies consistently. We show that return inter-predictability and crypto characteristics, including hashing algorithms and proof types, jointly determine the crypto market segmentation. Based on this classi?cation result, it is natural to employ eigenvector centrality to identify a cryptocurrency’s idiosyncratic risk. An asset pricing analysis ?nds that a cross-sectional portfolio with a higher centrality earns a higher risk premium. Further tests con?rm that centrality serves as a risk factor well and delivers valuable information content on cryptocurrency markets.